Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 17.596888 20.484515 23.645526 27.355677 31.583780 36.244564 41.763743
2024-10-27 11.987221 15.688213 20.171546 25.969582 33.232852 41.991233 53.308442
2024-11-03 9.932483 14.232107 19.860366 27.689396 38.206323 51.741050 70.354602
2024-11-10 8.743907 13.502477 20.139276 29.930428 43.834632 62.666986 89.849680
2024-11-17 7.322920 12.111103 19.185576 30.188867 46.604830 69.860294 104.870456
2024-11-24 6.075937 10.713437 17.941290 29.741200 48.151475 75.305485 117.746577
2024-12-01 5.008418 9.387564 16.566964 28.832494 48.781256 79.317018 128.706486
2024-12-08 4.308609 8.542391 15.811521 28.751169 50.594959 85.153237 142.765030
2024-12-15 3.780072 7.901194 15.289029 28.950447 52.816116 91.727693 158.401180
2024-12-22 3.072465 6.797659 13.790879 27.254902 51.637536 92.661184 164.982629
2024-12-29 2.820450 6.538303 13.785463 28.201792 55.075272 101.439001 185.043243
2025-01-05 2.655724 6.428126 14.040703 29.642840 59.500839 112.194498 209.163439
2025-01-12 2.262467 5.786917 13.218850 29.034973 60.314513 117.096515 224.252485
2025-01-19 1.850030 5.025426 12.047722 27.608202 59.479196 119.087614 234.596043
2025-01-26 1.760505 5.005643 12.444316 29.433182 65.147020 133.430942 268.350249
2025-02-02 1.714585 5.084185 13.065826 31.802483 72.127722 150.771862 308.893719
2025-02-09 1.530791 4.770186 12.745024 32.075816 74.830761 160.143765 335.147425
2025-02-16 1.328089 4.360062 12.130706 31.603005 75.898185 166.380514 355.820999
2025-02-23 1.129695 3.914833 11.354856 30.643016 75.789543 170.220284 372.033860
2025-03-02 1.000466 3.642429 10.970123 30.557095 77.588502 178.056199 396.719142
2025-03-09 0.899927 3.434794 10.720963 30.767639 80.070489 187.484145 425.262843
2025-03-16 0.737419 2.984625 9.734838 28.975984 77.699289 186.412513 432.043567
2025-03-23 0.691752 2.918556 9.817931 29.976619 82.068919 200.231664 471.003368